The Return of the Silent Majority

Were those reportedly "shy" Bush supporters responding from the graveyards?

All the right wing "pundits", who collectively make up what they love to refer 
to as the "liberal" media, sure did have a great time spinning off a Bush 
supporter non-response bias in the 2004 exit polls.  Did any of them run 
the numbers before reaching their incorrect conclusions?

When the National Election Pool (NEP) of (ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX. and NBC), 
took the 2004 exit polls they not only asked those who responded how they 
voted in 2004, but they also asked them how they voted in 2000.  Each of 
the 2004 exit poll respondents thus fit into one of the following four 
categories:  

1. Did not vote in 2000.  
2. Voted for Gore in 2000.
3. Voted for Bush in 2000.
4. Voted for somebody else in 2000.

At midnight on election night 2004 the resulting exit poll looked like this:


 Presidential Vote in 2000

 Bush

 Gore

 Kerry

 Nader

 Total

 2004

 2000

 2004

 2004

 Did not Vote (17%)

 41%

 N/A

 57%

 2%

 Gore (39%)

 8%

 n/a

 91%

 1%

 Bush (41%)

 90%

 n/a

 10%

 0%

 Other (4%)

 17%

 n/a

 64%

 14%

As can be found here 122,293,332 people voted for president in 2004. With 122,293,322 people voting in 2004, the total size of each of the categories in the midnight exit poll can be figured as follows: 1. 17% of the 122,293,322 voters in 2004 or 20,789,866 voters represented those who did not vote in 2000. 2. 39% of the 122,293.322 voters in 2004 or 47,694,399 voters represented those who voted for Gore in 2000. 3. 41% of the 122,293.322 voters in 2004 or 50,140,266 voters represented those who voted for Bush in 2000. 4. 4% of the 122,293.322 voters in 2004 or 4,891,753 voters represented those who voted for somebody else in 2000. Replacing the percentages with total voters leaves the midnight 2004 the exit polls looking like this:

 Presidential Vote in 2000

 Bush

 Gore

 Kerry

 Nader

 Total

 2004

 2000

 2004

 2004

 Did not Vote (20,789,865)

 8,523,845

 n/a

 11,850,223

 415,797

 Gore (47,694,396)

 3,815,552

 n/a

 43,401,900

 476,944

 Bush (50,140,262)

 45,126,236

 n/a

 5,014,026

 0

 Other (4,891,732)

 831,595

 n/a

 3,130,709

 684,843

Add it all up and the John Kerry landslide victory looks like this: 8,523,845 + 3,815,552 + 45,126,236 + 831,595 = 58,297,228 for Bush. 11,850,223 + 43,401,900 + 5,014,026 + 3,130,709 = 63,396,858 for Kerry. We find here that: 51,003,926 voted for Gore in 2000. 50,460,110 voted for Bush in 2000. 3,956,222 voted for Other in 2000. Almost if not completely because of the death rate of the electorate, the upper limit on the maximum number of voters in the last three categories of this poll can safely be reduced to 96% of the above numbers or to: A maximum of 48,963,769 can return in 2004 from the 2000 Gore vote total of 51,003,926. A maximum of 48,441,706 can return in 2004 from the 2000 Bush vote total of 50,460,110. A maximum of 3,795,093 can return in 2004 from the 2000 Other vote total of 3,956,222. The representation of category three (Bush 2000 voters) and category four (those who voted for others in 2000) in the midnight exit poll both exceed the maximum number of voters that could possibly show up at the polls in 2004 from those categories. It is therefore very clear that there can not possibly be a Bush non-response bias in the midnight exit polls. All those "pundits" were just sharing their illusions with you. If there really was a lack of response from Bush supporters then category three would surely be too small. There can not possibly be a lack of response from Bush supporters because category three is absolutely too large to be believable. The overly exuberant response to the 2004 exit polls by those who voted for Bush in 2000 resulted in a projection of the number of Bush voters, returning from the 2000 election, exceeding the supply of such voters that could possibly be available to vote in 2004. They would need all of their living 2000 voters and most of the dead 2000 voters to show up at the polls to even match their exit poll response. Did these reportedly "shy" Bush supporters really vote from the graveyards? Category four also has an over-response bias. With all of his opponents collectively having an over-response bias, John Kerry is the only major candidate that certainly has a non-response bias in the midnight exit poll. Any believable correction of this exit poll for response bias must clearly reduce the size of category three and four to move those categories below the upper limits on the supply of voters that can possibly return from the 2000 election and vote in 2004. This will clearly increase the size of the already apparent Kerry landslide victory. Since the percent of respondents who responded must surely be 100% in any correct poll, the weight taken from category three and four must be added to category one and two. This will further increase the size of the John Kerry landslide victory calculated above. Any believable correction of the midnight exit poll for the above response bias would absolutely have to wind up looking more like this than like the midnight exit poll:

 Presidential Vote in 2000

 Bush

 Gore

 Kerry

 Nader

 Total

 2004

 2000

 2004

 2004

 Did not Vote (18%)

 41%

 N/A

 57%

 2%

 Gore (40%)

 8%

 n/a

 91%

 1%

 Bush (39%)

 90%

 n/a

 10%

 0%

 Other (3%)

 17%

 n/a

 64%

 14%

Or like this by total voters:

 Presidential Vote in 2000

 Bush

 Gore

 Kerry

 Nader

 Total

 2004

 2000

 2004

 2004

 Did not Vote (22,012,798)

 9,025,247

 n/a

 12,547,295

 440,256

 Gore (48,917,329)

 3,913,386

 n/a

 44,514,769

 489,173

 Bush (47,694,396)

 42,924,956

 n/a

 4,769,440

 0

 Other (3,668,800)

 623,696

 n/a

 2,348,032

 513,632

Add it all up and the Kerry landslide victory expands to something like this: 9,025,247 + 3,913,386 + 42,924,956 + 623,696 = 56,487,285 for Bush. 12,547,295 + 44,514,769 + 4,769,440 + 2,348,032 = 64,179,536 for Kerry. The probability of Bush winning this election given this data is about as close to zero as you can get. Clearly any reasonable voter should be concerned that all we are doing at the polls is playing charades while those, who control the output of the machines that are supposed to be counting our votes, are determining the outcome of our elections. As the voting is completed the NEP adjusts the exit poll data to match the voting results. Before this is done exit polls like the midnight exit poll above have value to a statistician. Once the exit polls are adjusted to the vote count they are just a carbon copy of that count and have no statistical value. If the election is corrupt the adjusted exit polls will be too. The only way the 2004 exit polls could be weight adjusted to match the corrupted vote counts was to increase the weight of category number three, because it was the only category that could help Bush catch up. That is why the final adjusted exit poll had to include so many voters from the return of the "silent majority". Edison Media Research and Mitofski International, who conducted the exit polls for the National Election Pool (NEP) of (ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX. and NBC), adjusted the final NEP exit poll data to look like this: NEP exit poll after being adjusted for the non-existent Bush supporter non-response bias:

 Presidential Vote in 2000

 Bush

 Gore

 Kerry

 Nader

 Total

 2004

 2000

 2004

 2004

 Did not Vote (17%)

 45%

 n/a

 57%

 1%

 Gore (37%)

 10%

 n/a

 90%

 0%

 Bush (43%)

 91%

 n/a

 9%

 0%

 Other (3%)

 21%

 n/a

 71%

 3%

The above exit poll still can be found here. This is the data the NEP refers to as the corrected data. I prefer to call it the corrupted data since it can not possibly be correct. This very clearly corrupted data requires that 43% of the 122,293,332 people who voted for president in 2004 had voted for Bush in 2000. This "corrected" table credits 52,586,133 of the 50,460,110 voters who voted for Bush in 2000 with showing up to vote again in 2004. Even if all of the Bush 2000 supporters, including those needing to respond from the graveyards, managed to get out and vote the vote total projected by this clearly corrupted exit poll still exceeds a correct count of the votes that would have been cast by those Bush 2000 supporters by 4.2%. Warren Mitofsky of Mitofski International stated that "On election day the misinformation about the exit polls was spread by inexperienced people trying to make sense of complex statistical data". His failed attempt to correct the exit polls in a believable fashion, should make it abundantly clear to anyone who can grasp the implications of the grade school math used above that Warren surely did not succeed in making "sense of complex statistical data". 2004 US Election Exit Poll Discrepancy: According to a report by the Election Science Institute, "Edison-Mitofski, after studying their own data, acknowledged that the discrepancy was too large too be explained by random chance. Two explanations for the discrepancy remained. 1. The fraud accusation theory assumes that there were substantial and systematic fraud in the counting of the votes, and that such vote- shifting favored President Bush; in other words the official results were wrong. 2. The non-response theory assumes that Bush voters were less likely to respond to the interviewers than Kerry voters; in other words, the exit polls were wrong." We just totally eliminated option number two so let's dive into the only option we have left? The Footprints of Fraud: They can be found in almost every state in the union so let us check the state of Ohio that decided the 2004 presidential election. The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) found a huge 11.7% difference between the exit pole margin and the vote margin (WPD) in the recently released Ohio Precinct level data. Still 60% of the precincts polled were within the margin of error of the exit polls. This of course requires that the remaining 40% had much larger WPD to get the average up to a whopping 11.7%. The pair of graphs on page ten of this NEDA report is a plot of the huge shift of votes from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the vote count in many of those precincts that to any expert in probability theory sure should look like the footprints left behind by the fraud that returned George Dubya Bush to the White House in 2004. Do I have it correct that John Kerry clearly won a landslide victory in 2004 or am I just still ignoring the "silent majority" that always supported Richard Nixon so well? Is Dubya's approval rating really low or is the "liberal" media just ignoring his support from the "silent majority" who it is now finally perfectly clear reside in the graveyards of this great land? Any correction of the 2004 midnight exit polls for response bias that does not reduce category three below 40% is simply unbelievable because it clearly still includes a pro Bush response bias. Let me make one thing perfectly clear. The silent majority really did not show up to vote in 2004 irregardless of how many times you heard all of those right wing "pundits", who collectively make up what they love to refer to as the "liberal" media, testifying to the contrary.