Make the management of your stock market money easy using mutual fund trend rating system. These mutual fund ratings make it easy to spot hot sectors and developing trends. Mutual fund trend rankings make it easy to determine which stock groups are getting hot and which stock groups are turning cool in the global stock markets.
The purpose of this site is to help investors keep their investment portfolio in tune with the current market. While there are many sites that track performance in an attempt to do so, this site will not. Performance would work fine if prices were all traveling in straight lines. Unfortunately for the performance chasers, fund prices travel in cycles. Outstanding performance of a cyclical function tends to occur at the cyclical top. That is not a very good point at which to purchase an investment.
My goal is not to rank funds for how far they have gone but for how well they are trending. Since fund prices are all traveling in cycles these rankings will also travel in cycles. As long as these ranking cycles tend to precede pricing cycles, they will give someone using them an edge. Both back and front testing have shown that my rankings have tended to precede price.
I designed a filter, which tends to smooth out the short-term gyrations of pricing action and evaluate the trend in price. Over 1000 back tests of this filter, using different sets of parameters, all were able to trade Invesco Funds from the beginning of 1989 until the end of 1993, well enough to outperform every open ended mutual fund on the market.
By the beginning of 1995 I had this filter up and running live. It worked so well that when Bill Bernstein posted the following at MFI, I responded as follows and the "Pony Express" run began.
It can't be said often enough: There are only two kinds
of investors, those who can't predict market trends and those
who don't know that they can't. The market is an 800 pound gorilla,
and it's not a good idea to try to outguess it. The only way to
come out ahead in the long run is to figure out your "sleeping
point" riskwise, pick a stock/bond allocation which fits,
allocate your stock assets in a reasonably balanced manner (in
the long run, you can't predict what will work the best, anyway)
and then get a life. (In other words, stop obsessing about your
allocation/fund choice and go to work, play with your kids/grandkids,
smell the roses, write the great American novel)
Bill
My Response that led to the contest :
Feel up to a contest Mr. Bernstein?
You set up a portfolio of funds and hold for 5 years. Being the
market is completely unpredictable, we don't want to be inconsistent
and have you going against your theory. What would people think?
Besides, you need to spend time with the roses.
I can trade to any one fund at any time. My trades are made
at off the page NAV if the market is closed. That's no advantage
to me, since the market is completely unpredictable. Trades made,
while the market is open, use end of day NAV. NOTE : Selecting
more funds, might keep me away from the roses.
No loads or redemption fees apply. Unlimited free exchanges
for me.
If my gain is not twice yours in 5 years, I have to concede
defeat. If my gain gets to three times your gain, you have to
post an apology to this site for insulting our intelligence.
Anyone here can help me out. No advantage to me, since they
can't predict anything either. I'm open to suggestions on rule
changes. I'm in a hurry. I got to get back to those roses.
Bob
The rules have been changed so that I must announce any trade before the US market closes.
The progress report on the Pony Express, along with samples of the rankings that guide me in selecting the ponies, can be found by selecting from among the options on my HOME page.